The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has denied reports claiming that the country will experience one of its coldest winter this year, saying there is no scientific evidence to support such predictions.
The Met Office said Pakistan is likely to experience mild winter conditions with less-than-normal rainfall in the coming months. It stated, “The country can expect some winter waves with minor intensity due to western winds, but there are no chances of an intensely cold winter. This year, Pakistan is expected to see below-normal rainfall between December and February.”
The clarification came after the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG) suggested that Pakistan could face one of its coldest winters in decades due to the La Niña climate pattern. The PMD disagreed with the assessment, saying that no scientific facts supported such an extreme forecast.
A situation report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA) warned that the La Niña pattern could bring colder-than-usual temperatures to several parts of Pakistan. The report said this may put additional pressure on flood-affected communities, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit-Baltistan.
The report explained that La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean drop abnormally, disrupting global weather systems and causing major temperature shifts.
According to UN-OCHA’s October forecast, slightly negative phases of both the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to influence Pakistan’s rainfall pattern. It said northern regions such as Punjab, KP, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan may receive below-normal rainfall, while southern regions including Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab are expected to get near-normal precipitation.
The report also warned of possible effects such as disruptions to Kharif crop harvesting, increased risk of dengue due to stagnant water, potential glacial lake outburst floods in upper areas, reduced river inflows affecting irrigation, higher smog levels in plains, and negative impacts on livestock health due to above-normal temperatures.