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Tag: pakistan economy

  • Remittances to Pakistan decline by 19.3% to $2 billion in first month of fiscal year

    Remittances to Pakistan decline by 19.3% to $2 billion in first month of fiscal year

    Pakistan has experienced a notable decline in remittances during the first month of the current fiscal year, as data released by the central bank reveals a year-on-year drop of 19.3 per cent, amounting to $2 billion. This concerning trend was further accentuated by a month-on-month reduction of 7.3 per cent.

    In the month of July, remittance inflows from Pakistanis residing abroad amounted to $2.2 billion. The distribution of these remittances showed that Saudi Arabia held the top spot with a contribution of $486.7 million, followed by the United Arab Emirates with $315.1 million. The United Kingdom and the United States of America followed closely with $305.7 million and $238.1 million, respectively.

    Economic analysts anticipated this decline in remittances for the month of July, given the post-Eid ul Adha period. The reduction was expected, as Pakistani expatriates tend to increase their cash transfers back home during festive seasons. Interestingly, it seems that some of these remittance inflows have been diverted to the grey market due to more favourable exchange rates for dollars.

    Samiullah Tariq, the head of research at Pak-Kuwait Investment Company, shed light on this shift: “In my view, as this was the month after Eid ul Adha, flows were relatively subdued. Some Pakistanis are opting for unofficial channels to transfer money.” The continuous devaluation of the Pakistani currency is also impacting investment sentiment among overseas Pakistanis, discouraging them from contributing more significantly to the economy.

    The recent release of these remittance statistics coincides with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) approval of a $3 billion bailout package for Pakistan. The nation’s economy had been teetering on the edge of default due to mounting debt obligations. Governor Jameel Ahmad of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reassured that the SBP remains committed to upholding its obligations, including maintaining a controlled difference between the interbank and open market exchange rates, as specified in the agreement with the IMF.

    Fahad Rauf, the head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, voiced his concern over the decline in remittances: “The extent to which remittances have declined is indeed worrying. Unofficial channels offering higher rates have played a role in this scenario.” He also highlighted the SBP’s efforts to attract more remittances through proposed changes in incentive schemes, including a 50 per cent increase in the reimbursement rate for Saudi Riyal conversions.

    The SBP’s latest monetary policy statement forecasts the current account deficit for fiscal year 2024 to range between 0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent of the gross domestic product. This projection takes into account both evolving domestic and global economic conditions. The SBP remains optimistic about the prospects of multilateral and bilateral inflows following the IMF’s stand-by arrangement, which is expected to bolster external buffers and address short-term external financing requirements.

    As the nation navigates through these challenges, the market-determined exchange rate will continue to play a pivotal role as the first line of defence against external shocks, further supporting the buildup of reserves. With a cautious eye on global commodity prices and a moderate domestic economic recovery, Pakistan aims to manage its imports and strengthen its economic stability.

  • Govt hikes petrol and diesel prices by nearly Rs20 per litre

    Govt hikes petrol and diesel prices by nearly Rs20 per litre

    In a move to fulfill its commitment with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan’s Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has announced a substantial increase in petrol and diesel prices. The revision has taken effect immediately today (August 1st), with petrol price rising by Rs19.95 per litre and diesel price climbing by Rs19.90 per litre.

    Here are the new petrol and diesel prices:

    ProductOld pricesNew pricesIncrease
    PetrolRs253Rs272.95Rs19.95
    DieselRs253.50Rs273.40Rs19.90

    Minister Dar stated that the price hike was necessary to comply with the IMF’s requirement to impose a petroleum development levy (PDL) on the rates. He mentioned that despite attempts to mitigate the impact on inflation-weary citizens, the government had little room to maneuver due to the binding agreement with the IMF.

    The announcement was originally scheduled for July 31, but the government delayed the decision as officials sought ways to minimise the impact on the general public. The Finance Minister, making this announcement for the last time before his government’s term ends on August 12, emphasised that the decision was taken in the “national interest.”

    Dar clarified that if it were not for the IMF agreement, the government would have attempted to reduce the PDL to provide relief to the masses. He referred to the measures taken by the previous government that decreased petrol prices but resulted in a breach of commitments with the IMF.

    Explaining the reasons behind the price hike, the finance minister highlighted the surge in international market prices of high-speed diesel, which necessitated adjustments in local rates. He stressed that it was crucial to pass on the minimum amount to the consumers, considering the nation’s interests.

    The sudden increase in fuel prices is likely to have significant implications on the overall economy, including its impact on inflation rates and the cost of living for ordinary citizens. With the government’s term ending soon, the incoming administration will face the challenge of managing economic stability and addressing public concerns over rising fuel costs.

  • Govt gives nod to massive power tariff hike to meet IMF demands

    Govt gives nod to massive power tariff hike to meet IMF demands

    In a recent late-night development, the federal cabinet of Pakistan has given its approval for a significant increase in the electricity base tariff. This decision comes as part of the country’s efforts to meet the conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    According to the information provided by insiders, the federal government has decided to raise the basic power tariff for various consumer categories, with the increase ranging from Rs3 to Rs7.5 per unit.

    The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) played a pivotal role in this decision, as the cabinet approved the tariff hike based on Nepra’s recommendation.

    For non-protected residential consumers who use 1 to 100 units, the proposed increase is Rs3 per unit, which will elevate the current cost from Rs13.48 per unit to Rs16.48 per unit.

    Similarly, residential consumers using above 700 units might see a significant increase of Rs7.5 per unit, raising the existing rate from Rs35.22 per unit to Rs42.72 per unit.

    The government has now referred the matter to Nepra, which will conduct a public hearing to gather input and make a final decision before releasing an official notification. If approved, the new tariff will take effect from July 1.

    It is noteworthy that Nepra had already granted the federal government an increase of Rs4.96 per unit in the base electricity tariff on July 14.

    This move aligns with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s commitment to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, assuring full adherence to the agreement made with the global lender, leaving no room for any violation.

  • Painful IMF compliance, but no new taxes on agriculture and real estate, clarifies Dar

    Painful IMF compliance, but no new taxes on agriculture and real estate, clarifies Dar

    Finance Minister Ishaq Dar made a resolute declaration on Thursday, assuring the public that the coalition government, despite having taken stern measures that burdened the masses, has no intentions of imposing additional taxes on the agriculture and real estate sectors.

    Speaking passionately on the floor of the National Assembly, Dar firmly stated, “I want to state categorically […] that no new tax will be imposed on agriculture or real estate. We have endured much pain in meeting the IMF’s conditions.”

    This assurance comes in the wake of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approving a $3 billion bailout program for Pakistan, with $1.2 billion already disbursed to help stabilise the nation’s struggling economy.

    Media reports had indicated that the IMF requested a plan from the government to impose taxes on the real estate and agricultural sectors as a condition to release the remaining funds. The news caused concern among those associated with the agriculture sector, especially since the government had expanded the loan volume to support it in the budget.

    Dar emphasised that all prior actions demanded by the lender had been successfully completed, and the agreement with the IMF was carried out in a transparent manner. He reassured the public, “No further burden will be passed on to the people. All the commitments made with the IMF are available on the finance ministry’s website.”

    The positive effects of the deal are already evident, with investors in the country experiencing relief in the stocks, exchange rate, and bonds markets. Additionally, longstanding allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have recently deposited $3 billion in Pakistan’s central bank, while China rolled over $5 billion in loans over the past three months to prevent the country from defaulting.

    In light of the IMF’s observation that both agriculture and construction sectors are under-taxed in Pakistan, economist Khaqan Hassan Najeeb stressed their significance in broadening the tax base and promoting progressivism.

    Regarding the real estate sector, Najeeb advocated for a genuine capital gains tax, levied at the marginal income tax rate of the individual making the capital gains over the years, to encourage investment from unproductive real estate to more productive sectors like manufacturing.

    Read more: Pakistan’s petroleum dealers temporarily postpone nationwide petrol pump shutdown

    However, Najeeb acknowledged that such reforms would be better suited for implementation by a long-term new government after the upcoming elections. Moreover, he highlighted that provincial governments hold authority over agriculture income tax, which presently contributes only insignificantly. He urged provinces to contemplate a progressive income tax on agriculture, considering the size of farm holdings.

    With Minister Dar’s assurance and the IMF’s support, Pakistan’s economic prospects seem brighter, but the road ahead calls for careful consideration and judicious decision-making to ensure a sustainable and progressive financial future.

  • Pakistan’s major industrial production drops by 14.37% in May, marking ninth consecutive decline

    Pakistan’s major industrial production drops by 14.37% in May, marking ninth consecutive decline

    Pakistan’s Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector suffered a substantial year-on-year decline of 14.37 per cent in May, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

    This contraction represents the ninth consecutive month of contraction for the country’s major industries during the outgoing fiscal year FY23. The primary cause behind this downturn can be attributed to a slowdown in the production of export-oriented textile and clothing sectors.

    The consequences of this decline in large industries are evident in the form of a significant number of job losses. The reduction in production capacity has unfortunately resulted in numerous individuals becoming unemployed.

    These statistics shed light on the challenges faced by Pakistan’s manufacturing sector and raise concerns about the overall economic performance of the country in the coming months.

    In May, the growth of LSM experienced a decline compared to the same month last year. The decline in April was 21 per cent, which is lower than the decline of 25 per cent in March, 11.6 per cent in February, and 7.9 per cent in January. In December 2022, there was a slight decrease of 3.51 per cent.

    In November 2022, there was a negative growth of 5.49 per cent, while in October 2022, it declined by 7.7 per cent. In September 2022, there was a decrease of 2.27 per cent compared to the same month last year. In August, there was a slight increase of 0.30 per cent after a decline of 1.67 per cent in July, which marked the first month of the current fiscal year.

    Between July and May, LSM also recorded a negative growth of 9.87 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

    In FY22, the LSM expanded by 11.7 per cent year-on-year. The production estimate for LSM industries was based on the new base year of 2015-16.

    During May, the production of 16 sectors shrank, while only four sectors experienced a marginal increase. The textile sector’s production decreased by 25.97 per cent compared to the previous year. The major negative growth was observed in yarn (29.89 per cent) and cloth (17.49 per cent), while nominal growth was reported in the production of other textile products.

    On the positive side, the production of garments grew by 12.86 per cent in May. Its performance remained positive in the first 10 months, except for February when it experienced a decline.

    In the food group, wheat and rice production decreased by 0.36 per cent and starch and its products by 2.15 per cent. However, there was an increase of 39.99 per cent in the production of blended tea, 24.45 per cent in cooking oil, and 23.80 per cent in vegetable ghee.

    In May, petroleum products witnessed a negative growth of 21.85 per cent, primarily due to a decline in the production of petrol and high-speed diesel. Almost all other petroleum products experienced a slowdown, except for jet fuel, kerosene, jute, and batching oil. The auto sector also suffered a 68.60 per cent slump in May, as the production of almost all types of vehicles declined.

    The production of iron and steel decreased by 5.83 per cent in May, mainly due to a decline of 15.09 per cent in billets/ingots, while non-metallic mineral products saw a marginal growth of 0.53 per cent. However, chemical products experienced a negative growth of 15.44 per cent in May compared to the previous year.

    In May, the production of pharmaceutical products decreased by 38.61 per cent, rubber products by 5.81 per cent, and fertilisers by 13.31 per cent compared to the previous year.

  • IMF reaches $3 billion stand-by arrangement with Pakistan, averting impending default

    IMF reaches $3 billion stand-by arrangement with Pakistan, averting impending default

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan have reached a staff-level agreement on a stand-by arrangement worth $3 billion, announced the lender. This decision has been eagerly anticipated by Pakistan, a South Asian nation that is on the verge of default.

    The approval of the IMF board, expected in July, is required to finalise the deal. After an eight-month delay, this agreement brings some relief to Pakistan, which is currently grappling with a severe balance of payments crisis and dwindling foreign exchange reserves.

    The funding of $3 billion, which will be disbursed over a period of nine months, surpasses initial expectations. Pakistan had been awaiting the release of the remaining $2.5 billion from a $6.5 billion bailout package that was initially agreed upon in 2019, and which expired on Friday. As a result, the country’s stock and currency markets remained closed on that day.

    According to IMF official Nathan Porter, the new stand-by arrangement builds upon the 2019 programme. Porter acknowledged the significant challenges faced by Pakistan’s economy in recent times, including devastating floods last year and rising commodity prices following the war in Ukraine.

    He stated, “Despite the authorities’ efforts to reduce imports and the trade deficit, reserves have declined to very low levels. Liquidity conditions in the power sector also remain acute.” Porter further emphasised that the new arrangement would serve as a policy anchor and a framework for financial assistance from both multilateral and bilateral partners in the foreseeable future.

    Porter also highlighted the acute liquidity conditions in the power sector, characterised by mounting arrears and frequent power outages. Reforming the energy sector, which has accumulated a debt of nearly 3.6 trillion Pakistani rupees ($12.58 billion), has been a pivotal aspect of the discussions between Pakistan and the IMF.

  • Pakistani rupee records slight increase against US dollar, settles at Rs285.99

    Pakistani rupee records slight increase against US dollar, settles at Rs285.99

    The State Bank of Pakistan reported that the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) maintained an upward trajectory against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on Tuesday.

    The PKR experienced a gain of Rs0.072 against the greenback, resulting in a closing rate of Rs285.99. This marks an improvement from the previous day’s closing rate of Rs286.71.

    Experts attribute the rise in the dollar’s value to the government’s successful fulfillment of all conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently engaged in his fourth communication with the IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, within a span of six days.

    It is worth noting that Pakistan’s ninth review by the IMF under the 2019 Extended Fund Facility, which aims to secure the release of $1.2 billion in funds, is still pending. With only three days remaining until the programme’s expiry on June 30, there is a pressing need to conclude the review process promptly.

  • Inflation worsens in Pakistan, affecting purchasing power of millions

    Inflation worsens in Pakistan, affecting purchasing power of millions

    The citizens of Pakistan, a poor country with a population of 220 million, have been struggling with record-high inflation due to the government’s inability to control prices. According to the weekly bulletin released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the weekly inflation increased by 46.82 per cent year-on-year and 0.15 per cent week-on-week, ending on April 27.

    The rise in the sensitive price indicator (SPI) was attributed to the increase in the prices of potatoes, chicken, wheat flour, gur, bread, and rice irri-6/9. On the other hand, there was a decrease in the prices of tomatoes, bananas, onions, sugar, LPG, pulse masoor, and mustard oil during the same period. The SPI for the week under review was recorded at 252.20 points, up from 251.83 points the previous week and 171.78 points recorded during the week ended on April 28, 2022.

    Fahad Rauf, head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, attributed the moderate increase in SPI mainly to the rise in the prices of potatoes and mutton. The price trend of perishable food items during the Eid week has been mixed, with the prices of some items going up and some going down. Ismail Iqbal Securities predicted that the CPI for April 2023 would come around 38 per cent, up from 35.4 per cent in March 2023, due to house rent revisions and higher wheat prices.

    The absence of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme and persistent inflationary pressures may result in another rate hike, as per Ismail Iqbal Securities. An interest rate hike could further discourage businesses, which have already postponed their expansion plans and hiring. Import restrictions have also added to the woes of industries and businesses that have faced frequent shutdowns, resulting in uncertain or no wages for millions of workers.

    The SPI is compiled by PBS by collecting prices of 51 essential items from 50 markets in 17 cities of the country. During the week, prices of 21 items increased by 41 per cent, while prices of seven items decreased by 13.73 per cent, and prices of 23 items remained unchanged, accounting for 45.10 per cent of the total. Various weightages are assigned to different commodities in the SPI basket, with milk, electricity, wheat flour, sugar, firewood, long cloth, and vegetable ghee having the highest weights for the lowest quintile. The price of milk and wheat flour increased, while the price of sugar decreased. The prices of electricity, firewood, long cloth, and vegetable ghee remained unchanged. However, the prices of all these commodities increased on a yearly basis.

  • US urges Pakistan to implement IMF reforms as economic crisis deepens

    The United States has urged Pakistan to take urgent action to implement the necessary reforms required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to address the country’s rising economic crisis. Inflation has been a major issue for Pakistan, and discussions between the two parties have been ongoing since January to find a consensus on multiple conditions before signing a deal that includes external financing from friendly nations.


    Elizabeth Horst, the State Department official in charge of Pakistan, stressed the importance of Pakistan’s compliance with the IMF’s agreed-upon reforms to ensure the country’s financial stability and avoid falling further into debt. She emphasised that although the reforms may not be easy, they are essential for the growth of Pakistan’s economy.


    Horst also expressed the US government’s concern over Pakistan’s economic situation and promised support for the country, particularly in policy, business, and transparency. She pointed out that the trade relationship between the two countries is already worth over nine billion dollars and will continue to increase.


    Highlighting the close cooperation between the US and Pakistan in areas such as trade and investment, climate change, and security, Horst revealed that the Pakistan-US Green Alliance has been initiated to further enhance these relations. She emphasised the importance of Pakistan’s sovereignty and that it is free to make its own choices.


    The State Department official also emphasised that both countries are working together to ensure regional security, counter-terrorism, and counter-narcotics. She expressed concern over the rising number of terrorist incidents in Pakistan and stressed the importance of continuing cooperation between the two countries to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorists.


    Horst concluded by stating that a peaceful and stable Afghanistan is in the interest of both Pakistan and the US. She emphasised the importance of pushing the Taliban to fulfill their promises for peace and stability, as thousands of lives have already been affected by terrorism.

  • Transporters overcharge passengers after fresh increase in fuel prices

    Transporters overcharge passengers after fresh increase in fuel prices

    The recent hike in petroleum prices has been met with public outcry, with many stating that the significant increase in petrol prices has severely impacted the common man, as transporters have raised fares just ahead of Eid-ul-Fitr. This rise in oil product prices is also expected to have repercussions on the cost of daily commodities, particularly kitchen items.

    The Statistical Department of Pakistan has reported that people were already facing 44.6 per cent inflation, and the weekly report showed that this figure was expected to increase further with the recent hike in petroleum prices. The price of petrol has been raised to Rs282 per litre, while high-speed diesel and light diesel oil rates will remain stable at Rs293 per litre and Rs174.68 per litre, respectively. However, kerosene oil has seen an increase of Rs5.78 per litre, with its price now standing at Rs186.07 per litre.

    Long route transporters have increased fares by 10 to 20 per cent per ticket, while freight services charges have risen by 30 per cent. Over 70 per cent of people have started to travel to their native towns to celebrate Eid-ul-Fitr with their families, and they have protested against the sitting government for the fresh increase in petroleum prices. The business community has also warned of a new wave of inflation, and the Pakistan Oil Tankers Association and All Pakistan Truck and Trailer Association have rejected the hike in petroleum product prices.

    Local transporters have also increased fares without permission, claiming that there is no government in the country. However, the District Regional Transport Authority (DRTA) Secretary has stated that they have started a crackdown against transporters who are overcharging passengers. The senior representatives of the trader’s community have also rejected the present hike in petroleum prices and have advised political parties to work together to boost the country’s economy.

    The All Pakistan Clerks Association (APCA) has stated that they are facing difficulties due to the government’s wrong policies and have decided to start a revolution after Eid-ul-Fitr against the wrong government policies. Wagon owners and drivers have protested at the termination points of their routes, while public transport operators in the Rawalpindi division will be meeting to discuss the situation. In summary, transporters, traders, and the general public have strongly reacted to the recent increase in fuel prices.