The prices of petroleum products are expected to decline significantly in the upcoming fortnight with shifts in international oil prices, refining margins, and import premiums. According to reports, high-speed diesel (HSD) rates are projected to decline by a respectable Rs3.13 per litre.
The projected drop in HSD rates is expected to bring the price down to Rs269.86 per litre, from the current Rs272.99. As per reports, petrol prices are expected to fall from Rs264.61 to Rs264.00 per litre, a projected decrease of Rs0.61 per litre.
These changes are expected to take effect in the first half of September 2025, after which prices will remain locked for two weeks. Reports also suggest that light diesel oil (LDO) may see a drop of Rs2.61 per litre, bringing its price down to Rs159.55 per litre.
Following the same trend, reports anticipate a decrease of Rs1.78 per litre in Kerosene prices, causing its expected price to sit at Rs176.70 per litre for the upcoming fortnight. While ex-refinery price adjustments follow the same trend, these adjustments are more conservative.
According to ex-refinery price adjustments, prices will decline by a factor of Rs2.87 per litre for HSD, Rs0.43 per litre for petrol, Rs2.61 per litre for LDO, and Rs1.57 per litre for Kerosene.
As per the details, these price estimates do not consider changes in the value of the rupee. Fuel prices can starkly differ from estimations depending on the rupee-dollar exchange rate.
Reports suggest that HSD is the most used fuel in Pakistan, and a drop in its prices is likely to have the most noticeable impact on the economy as it lowers the operating costs for both the transport and agriculture sectors. The projected decrease may benefit the economy by helping lower food prices. HSD is widely used in agriculture to power tractors and other mechanised farming equipment.
A decrease in HSD rates could also benefit the transport sector, given its reliance on fuel. For instance, the transportation sector has diesel as a primary input and thus requires vast quantities of the commodity. Lower HSD prices imply lower operational costs for businesses in the transportation sector.