Author: Ibraheem Sohail

Pakistan’s economic woes continue as the economy witnessed its trade deficit grow to a staggering $3.4 billion in April 2025. According to reports, economic experts believe that Pakistan’s overall current account balance may close in the red for fiscal year (FY) 2024-25, as Pakistan runs persistently high trade deficits.

Macroeconomic indicators exhibited signs of revival in March 2025 as Pakistan logged its largest current account surplus of $1.2 billion. For reference, the current account considers net export income, net income from abroad and net current transfers.

Cash-strapped Pakistan was only able to achieve a surplus based on the net current transfers component of the current account, which considers remittance inflows into the country. According to reports, Pakistan has witnessed a significant growth in remittance inflows, largely because of 2.4 million migrating out of the country over the last three years.

Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) paints an alarming picture, revealing falling export revenues alongside growing import bills. Pakistan’s trade deficit surged to a staggering $3.39 billion, translating into a month-on-month (MoM) deficit growth of 55.2 percent.

The widening of the trade deficit is likely to put significant depreciatory pressure on the rupee, resulting in a subsequent pressure on the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign reserves. This is because the SBP follows a managed float regime, intervening in the foreign exchange market to prevent the rupee from straying beyond its permitted exchange rate band.

As per data from the PBS, Pakistan’s import bill grew to a whopping $5.53 billion, indicating that the import bill had recorded a 14.52 percent growth on a MoM basis. Export figures in April 2025, on the other hand, witnessed a 19.05 percent MoM drop, falling to just $2.14 billion.

Moreover, this trend of rising imports and falling exports is present in year-on-year (YoY) trade statistics as well. Imports have logged a 14.09 percent YoY increase, with exports witnessing 8.93 percent fall on a YoY basis. 

Aggregated data from the PBS indicates that the trade deficit for the first ten months of FY 2024-25 has ballooned to a colossal $21.35 billion. The breakdown of Pakistan’s trade statistics over the aforementioned period has revealed that total exports stand at $26.86 billion, vastly outweighed by imports amounting to $48.21 billion.

Details from reports suggest that the higher import bill signifies a revival of the economy, as the domestic economy demands more petroleum products. The surge in petroleum demand comes on the back of higher vehicle sales due to lower interest rates.

Pakistan’s economic woes continue as the country’s trade deficit with the Middle East has widened by 10.11 percent to reach a staggering $10.502 billion in the first nine months of fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. According to data compiled by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Pakistan’s trade deficit with the Middle East has worsened with the sharp rise in the import of petroleum products, accompanied by paltry export growth.

The surge in petroleum consumption has reportedly caused concern to lawmakers in Islamabad, as high imports hurt Pakistan’s current account balance. Despite authorities raising the petroleum development levy significantly, domestic consumption remains high, which positively impacts the demand for imported fuel.

As per reports, crude oil imports rose by a whopping 14.61 percent during the first eight months of FY 2024-25 compared to the same period in FY 2023-24. The demand for petroleum shrank in the previous FY because of a surge in domestic prices. Reports indicate that this allowed for Pakistan’s trade balance with the Middle East to improve by 20.47 percent in FY 2023-24.

Compared to import growth, exports have grown sluggish, reportedly increasing by 4.47 percent to settle at $2.381 billion in the first nine months of FY 2024-25.

Analysts have outlined how export growth this FY to the region has been poor, comparing it to the whopping 35.23 percent export growth Pakistan was able to achieve in FY 2023-24.

Lawmakers intend to plug the trade gap and recently inked an agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to boost commercial activities. Details from reports indicate that the agreement will serve to remove barriers to free trade.

This could prove to be beneficial for exporters as Pakistani goods are sought after in the Middle East. One of the primary factors driving demand for Pakistani goods is the large expatriate community that lives in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.

Experts believe that if domestic fuel demand remains high, the federal government could attempt to raise the levy to curb excessive imports. Alternatively, Pakistan could consider the exploration and extraction of its own petroleum, which may significantly improve the cash-strapped economy’s balance of trade.

However, in the short run, the government can only rely on measures such as import controls and higher taxation levels to ensure that the trade deficit with the Middle East does not grow sizably.

Carmakers in Pakistan have taken opposing routes on pricing, as Kia has announced major temporary price reductions starting May 1, while Suzuki has raised rates across several of its car models.

Lucky Motor Corporation has dropped the prices of three Kia Sportage models. Data from reports indicates that the L Alpha is now priced at Rs8.499 million after a cut of Rs1 million. The L FWD has been reduced by Rs1.82 million to Rs9.999 million, while the L HEV sees the biggest drop of Rs1.851 million, bringing the price down to Rs10.999 million. According to the company, these cuts are temporary, but no end date has been announced.

Meanwhile, Suzuki has recently increased its prices for multiple variants, despite no major changes in taxes or duties on automobiles. The Swift GL MT now costs Rs4.416 million, up by Rs80,000. Cultus variants have also increased, with the VXR now costing Rs4.230 million after witnessing a staggering rise of Rs372,000. 

The Cultus VXL and AGS models have both gone up by Rs72,000 and are now priced at Rs4.316 million and Rs4.618 million respectively. The aforementioned price hikes were announced by the company on April 26 and followed earlier increases made by the company in February.

Suzuki’s decision to raise prices in rapid succession could result in a major loss of market share. Given the price points, potential customers may consider opting for the Kia Picanto 1.0 AT, which has an on-road price tag of approximately Rs4 million. 

Moreover, with Kia offering sharp reductions on its expensive variants, the company could gain a stronger hold on the domestic automotive industry. According to reporters, overall production costs are falling amid stable exchange rates, and with the SBP slashing interest rates, the company’s profit margins may not take a hit, as a drop in prices is likely to boost sales volume.

The more accessible pricing may attract buyers who have held back on purchases in recent months amid affordability concerns. Moreover, the lower interest rates benefit not just automotive companies but also their customers, who can now purchase cars using more economical financing schemes.

In another development, Bolan Casting Ltd, which supplies parts to the tractor industry, has paused its production from April 28 to May 9. As per reports, the company cited a sharp drop in orders as the reason for the temporary shutdown.

Petroleum dealers have urged the government to honour the long-overdue promise of raising their profit margins on petrol and diesel sales by Rs1.40 to Rs2.20 per litre. According to reports, this commitment has remained unfulfilled since the start of the current fiscal year (FY).

This request was made during a session of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Petroleum, chaired by Syed Mustafa Shah. The committee called upon the Petroleum Division, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra), and the Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association (PPDA) to submit comprehensive reports so that a resolution could be reached.

The PPDA voiced its dissatisfaction over the delay, highlighting that in September 2023, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) had approved a phased margin increase of Rs1.64 per litre for fuel station owners and Rs1.87 per litre for oil marketing firms. According to reports, the aforementioned calculations were made with Pakistan State Oil’s cost structure in mind.

Moreover, the government had reportedly pledged to adjust these margins annually in line with inflation. However, inflation has remained subdued, with inflation levels dropping to 0.7 percent in March 2025.

Reports indicate that earlier this year, dealers proposed raising their margins by Rs2.20 per litre, while Ogra suggested a smaller hike of Rs1.40 per litre on the current margins of Rs7.87 for dealers and Rs8.64 for marketing firms. Despite these recommendations, no official notification has been issued throughout FY 2024-25.

During discussions, the idea of transforming CNG outlets into petrol stations was briefly mentioned. Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik responded that such conversions could be considered individually within the scope of current energy policies, which would not be immediately revised. Reports suggest that the committee postponed further discussions on this matter to a later meeting.

Responding to inquiries about fuel quality and pricing concerns, the minister acknowledged challenges linked to GST and LPG profit structures. He assured the committee that Ogra was responsible for oversight in these areas and that relevant matters would be addressed in the upcoming national budget.

Ogra Chairman Masroor Khan noted that petroleum product prices are reviewed bi-monthly, subject to government approval, and that the state-run PSO currently fulfils about half of the country’s fuel demand.

Following a series of high-level meetings between Pakistan and United States (US) digital finance stakeholders, Donald Trump Jr has followed Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) CEO Bilal Bin Saqib on X. The gesture comes on the heels of a landmark partnership between the PCC and World Liberty Financial (WLF). 

As per reports, President Donald Trump and some of his closest relatives collectively hold a 60 percent stake in the WLF, which is a decentralised finance platform. The partnership was formalised during a high-level meeting in Islamabad, and if successful, could accelerate blockchain innovation, support the adoption of decentralised finance (DeFi), and promote sustainable use of digital assets across Pakistan.

Meetings between the PCC and WLF concluded that core initiatives that will fall under the partnership include regulatory sandboxes for blockchain-based financial products, real-world asset tokenisation, stablecoin rails for remittances and trade, and advisory services on global digital finance infrastructure.

The PCC aims to reposition Pakistan as an innovation-friendly, tech-forward economy. Senior officials from the council such as Bilal bin Saqib intend to fast-track blockchain policy, while ensuring compliance with international standards. Donald Trump Jr is not the only individual keen in partnering up with Pakistan, as Binance’s co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) also recently joined the PCC, lending credibility to the country’s crypto initiatives on the global stage.  

Analysts have noted how all of this progress has taken place within just five weeks of the Council’s formation — signaling the speed and scale of transformation that effective leadership can deliver. The aforementioned groundbreaking partnerships have allowed the PCC to garner global attention, as it earns Pakistan international recognition as a serious player in crypto diplomacy.

The WLF’s partnership with the PCC and Donald Trump Jr’s subsequent decision to follow Saqib is a symbolic yet significant moment — representing the growing interest among US crypto entrepreneurs and tech investors in Pakistan’s digital future. 

This chapter of U.S.–Pakistan cooperation marks more than a moment — it signals a new direction; one where businesses are powered by blockchain, and innovation becomes the bridge between nations.

The State Bank of Pakistan stays firm on its projections, revealing that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will range from 2.5 to 3.5 percent during fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. According to reports, the SBP expects macroeconomic indicators pertaining to growth to move in a positive direction owing to an uptick in economic activity in the second half of the current FY.

However, international creditors have revised their growth projections downward. Data from the World Bank indicates that Pakistan’s economy is expected to grow by 2.7 percent during the current FY, falling marginally from earlier estimations of a 2.8 percent growth rate.

However, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) growth revisions have been more pronounced as the lender expects real GDP growth to sit at just 2.6 percent. This is a large deviation from the growth rate the IMF originally anticipated, which stood at a respectable three percent.

In the SBP’s biannual report, The State of Pakistan’s Economy, the central bank has pinned the blame for sustainable economic growth on falling productivity levels. According to the report, the drop in productivity has negatively impacted the cash-strapped country’s “economic competitiveness”. 

The report outlined abysmally low GDP per worker figures, which, as per reports, were below its counterparts. The figure above is often used by economists to roughly gauge the average productivity of workers in the economy.  

Pakistan’s GDP per capita values have not fared well either, as Trading Economics projects per capita GDP to be $1717 for 2025. For reference, India’s GDP per capita was estimated at $2,377 during the same period.

The SBP’s report conceded that there is a greater risk of weaker real GDP growth rates, which may sit closer to the 2.5 percent value of the 2.5 to 3 percent growth band predicted by the SBP.

According to data from reports, domestic industries are struggling, especially the Large-Scale Manufacturing sector, which recorded a staggering 1.9 percent decline during the first eight months of FY 2024-25. Coupled with other sectors shrinking, the SBP has highlighted a paltry growth in employment levels, spelling bad news for job seekers.

The cotton sector has witnessed a 28 percent fall, which spells bad news for a textile exporting nation, as cotton is a major input material in textiles. The decline in cotton production could stem from the domestic textile sector’s increasing reliance on imported cotton. 

However, the federal government has enacted policies to make domestically produced cotton as competitive as imported cotton to boost productivity.